Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2024
The Australian economy is still growing, but things are moving slower than usual, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is being cautious with any changes to interest rates. They’re waiting for inflation to settle before taking further action. GDP Growth: Slowly But Surely While the economy is growing, it’s not as fast as we might like. Over the June quarter, the economy expanded by just 0.2%, with a 1.5% growth over the financial year. While these numbers sound positive, when you factor in Australia’s growing population, the story changes. For the sixth quarter in a row, GDP per capita (which looks at economic growth per person) has actually fallen. This shows that while Australia as a whole is growing, individuals may not feel that impact, especially with rising costs of living. Interest Rates: Holding Steady In September, the RBA decided to keep interest rates on hold at 4.35%, with the next decision due in November. While the US recently cut rates, Australia hasn’t followed suit, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any rate cuts before Christmas. The RBA is holding off to ensure inflation is well under control, despite it being much lower than the peak in 2022. Inflation: Better But Still Stubborn Annual inflation hit 3.8% in the June quarter, slightly up from March. However, there’s good news: underlying inflation (which strips out the more volatile price changes) has been falling for six straight quarters, down from its peak of 6.8% in late 2022. That said, prices for everyday goods remain high, and the overall cost of living is still squeezing households. Households Are Tightening Their Belts With cost-of-living pressures building, many Australians are cutting back on things like travel and entertainment. Even grocery spending is down, with households trimming their food budgets by 1%. However, spending on household goods, like furniture and appliances, increased by 4%, which propped up discretionary spending overall. Housing Market: Prices Still Going Up The property market remains strong, with housing values continuing to rise across Australia, although at a slower pace than before. CoreLogic reports that the national Home Value Index rose by 0.5% in August and a further 0.4% in September. Despite the cost of living, demand for property remains high, which is keeping prices elevated. Jobs Market: Still Tight, But Productivity Is Falling Australia’s unemployment rate remains low, sitting at 4.1% as of June, which is historically strong. However, total hours worked rose only slightly, and productivity—measured by GDP per hour worked—fell by 0.8%. While jobs remain secure for many Australians, people are working more for less output, and this could become a concern for long-term economic stability. Global Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead Globally, central banks are starting to look at easing monetary policies, but it’s still unclear how much they’ll ease up. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and northern Africa are causing further instability. Meanwhile, Asia’s economy, a key trading partner for Australia, is expected to slow in 2024, which could have a knock-on effect on our own economic growth. What It All Means for You For everyday Australians, the combination of high interest rates, sticky inflation, and rising living costs means it’s more important than ever to manage your finances carefully. Mortgage holders won’t see relief from rate cuts soon, and households should continue to be mindful of their budgets, especially with the cost of essentials like groceries and petrol still fluctuating. If you’re feeling the pinch, now is a good time to seek professional advice and ensure you have a financial plan in place that helps you navigate these uncertain times.
Is FORO ruining your retirement?
FORO – the fear of running out. I’d never heard the expression until I met Mark and Susan. Of course I’d heard of FOMO, the fear of missing out, but never FORO. As the newly-retired couple sat across from me, explaining how they were so afraid of running out of savings that they were not enjoying the retirement they’d worked so diligently for, I grasped the meaning of FORO immediately. They rarely went out for dinner, bought anything new or – heaven forbid – took a holiday. After a lifetime of saving hard, paying off a mortgage and raising a family, Mark and Susan were naturally frugal, but FORO had left them feeling vulnerable and afraid of the future. After two decades as a financial planner, I’d come across this situation before, although, it is unfortunately becoming more common. Mark and Susan had never sought financial advice before and weren’t sure what I could do to help, but came to see me because they didn’t know where else to turn. When I assured them that there was plenty I could do to help, they visibly relaxed. I explained that the key to overcoming FORO was having a well-structured financial plan. After I outlined my 5-step strategy, they were eager to proceed. The steps we took were as follows: By thoroughly assessing their current financial position (superannuation, savings, investment and social security entitlement), I formulated a picture of where they were at, and their future cash flow projections. Working together, we identified essential living expenses and discretionary expenses, then allocated funding that balanced financial security with lifestyle goals. Next, we determined a retirement investment portfolio with a sensible withdrawal rate to support their retirement plans. In my experience, the what if factor is a major concern for retirees. What if…I become ill? What if…the fridge breaks down? What if…the car dies? These questions, and more, play on peoples’ minds to the point where they fall back into a FORO mind set. To ease their anxiety, I recommended they include a contingency fund in their portfolio to ensure that unplanned expenses were covered. That way, if something unexpected pops up, their retirement lifestyle strategy remains on track. FORO had been holding Mark and Susan back for too long. I explained that hobbies, travel and social activities are crucial to mental well-being. So once we had established a responsible financial plan, I showed them how they could afford to spend, sensibly, and enjoy themselves. I especially encouraged them to make the most of their early retirement years, while they were fit and energetic. The final step in the process was my ongoing commitment to Mark and Susan. Retirement planning is not a set-and-forget strategy; it’s a journey through every stage of life – physical retirement being one of those stages. By regularly reviewing their financial position, I helped Mark and Susan monitor their spending and investment performance, and made portfolio adjustments that kept them in control of their retirement plan. Last week I bumped into the couple on the street. They were glowing with excitement and told me they’d just booked a Pacific cruise. Of course, I was thrilled for them – it was a big tick off the bucket list! But when Susan said they’d turned FORO into FOMO and were living their best lives, well, I’ll just say it was one of those moments when I absolutely love my job!